Ted Thompson’s CB Mold

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At this point I think it is fairly common knowledge that the Packers have draft needs at the CB, DT, and ILB positions. So you’ll see mock draft after mock draft mocking countless names at each of those positions to the Packers without regards to whether or not they actually fit the mold Ted Thompson has set for each. So over the next few weeks leading up to the draft, I will address this trend and take a look at the type of player that Ted Thompson drafts at each of those positions; specifically focusing on physical measurements and athletic ability as shown at the combine.  The first position that I decided anayze is CB, which I believe to be biggest need for the Packers to address after losing both Tramon Williams and Davon House this off season via Free Agency.

First let’s compare the combine averages for every CB invited to the combine this year and compare them to the combine averages for the 7 CB’s drafted by the Packers under current GM Ted Thompson:

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical 20 yd Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Combine Avg* 71.6″ 195.8 4.49 35.5 4.18 6.9 15.4 121.3
Packers Avg** 71.9″ 194.4 4.47 1.55 34.8 4.19 6.79 14.2 118.8

*Combine averages for every CB invited to the combine from 2006-2014 (Data courtesy of Jon Moore, Rotoviz, @TheCFX)  http://rotoviz.com/2015/02/good-3-cone-time-your-guide-to-nfl-combine-drills

**Combine averages for every CB drafted by the Packers during Ted Thompson’s tenure as Packers GM. (2005-2014)

By simply looking at the data above, you can tell that when Ted Thompson looks at CB’s, he tends to focus on 3 combine criteria: Height, 40 yard dash, and 3 cone drill.  But by digging further into the individual combine performances of the CB’s drafted by Thompson, you can tell there are certain thresholds that a player must meet to garner draft consideration.

CB Height Weight 40 time 10 yd split vertical 20 yd shuttle 3 cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Demetri Goodson 71″ 194 4.44 1.59 37 4.34 6.8 11 123
Michah Hyde 72″ 197 4.56 1.59 33 4.2 6.78 12 121
Casey Hayward 71″ 192 4.57 1.58 34 3.9 6.76 19 119
Davon House 72″ 200 4.44 1.52 33.5 4.12 6.65 14 109
Pat Lee 72″ 200 4.41 1.46 31 4.3 7.07 15 120
Will Blackmon 72″ 198 4.46 1.56 41 4.24 6.69 121
Michael Hawkins* 73″ 180 4.41 34 4.2 6.79

*Note: Hawkins was not invited to the combine, therefore his measurements and workout numbers are from his Oklahoma pro day in 2005. I decided to include his pro day because his numbers are similar to those of the rest of the group and I felt it was necessary to consider all CB’s drafted by the Packers under Thompson.

 

First and foremost, Thompson looks at height. All 7 of the CB’s drafted by Thompson have been at least 71″ tall, or 5’11”.  So given that history, I think we can eliminate all CB’s who didn’t measure in at 5’11” or taller at the combine.

Secondly, he considers top end/straight line speed, as measured by the 40 yd dash. Of the 7 CB’s drafted by Thompson, all have run their combine 4o in a time of 4.57 seconds or less, with an average of 4.47 seconds. Now simple mathematical statistics suggests that if you take the average of a data set and move 2 standard deviations in either direction, 95% of all considered solutions will fit into it and anything outside of that can be consider an outlier. Therefore we can take the CB 40 time average of 4.47 and add the 2 standard deviations, roughly .13 seconds, which comes out to 4.60 seconds. A 40 Yard Dash of 4.60 seconds or less becomes our 2nd threshold.

Finally, the 3 cone drill, which essentially is a measure of body control, fluidity, and the ability to change directions while maintaining speed.  The 3 cone seems to be the most important combine drill when it comes to evaluating CB’s for Ted Thompson. As you can see tables above, the average 3 cone for a CB drafted by the Packers under Ted Thompson is 6.79 seconds. The highest 3 cone score for a CB drafted by Ted Thompson belongs to Pat Lee, who in 2008 ran his in a time of 7.07 seconds.* As I did before with the 40 Yard Dash, I took the avg 3 cone of 6.79 seconds and added the 2 standard deviations, roughly .29 seconds, to find the 3 cone threshold of 7.08 seconds.

*If you were to eliminate Pat Lee’s 7.07 3 cone, which is on the cusp of being an outlier in this set of data, the group average would come down to 6.75 seconds.  The 3 cone threshold would then also come down to 6.91, which as you can see with the individual combine numbers below, would eliminate another 8 CB’s from draft consideration.

 

To recap, the 3 three thresholds I ultimately settled on were:

1. CB prospect must be 5’11

2. CB prospect must run a 40 time of 4.60 seconds or better

3. CB prospect must run his 3 cone in a matter of 7.08 seconds or less

 

When I went back and put each of the 32 CB prospects at the 2015 combine through each of the thresholds, I found that only 14 of those 32 prospects passed all 3, thus eliminating 18 CB’s from Packers draft consideration. Below, I’ve listed the CB’s that fit the Packers combine thresholds in order of how I grade them out as a prospect.

 

Day 1 Grades

CB Marcus Peters, Washington- 6’ 197 1st Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Marcus Peters 72″ 197 4.53 1.61 37.5 4.08 7.08 17 121

 

Day 2 Grades

CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St- 6’ 186 Early 2nd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Trae Waynes 72″ 186 4.31 1.55 38 4.39 7.06 19 122

 

CB Eric Rowe, Utah- 6’1 205 Early 2nd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Eric Rowe 73″ 205 4.45 1.56 39 3.97 6.7 19 125

 

Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest- 6’ 188 Early 2nd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Kevin Johnson 72″ 188 4.52 1.6 41.5 3.89 6.79 130

 

P.J. Williams, Florida St- 6′ 194 2nd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
PJ Williams  72″ 194 4.57 1.55 40 4.28 7.08 12 132

 

Jalen Collins, LSU- 6’1 203 2nd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Jalen Collins 73″ 203 4.48 1.5 36 4.27 6.77 124

 

Byron Jones, UCONN- 6’1 199 2nd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Byron Jones 73″ 199  *4.39 44 3.94 6.78 147

Note: This is Jones’ 40 time at his pro day.  He did not run the 40 Yard Dash at the combine, as he was still recovering from offseason surgery.

 

Ronald Darby, FSU- 5’11 193 Early 3rd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Ronald Darby 71″ 193 4.38 1.47 41.5 4.14 6.94 12 129

 

Alex Carter, Stanford- 6’ 196 3rd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Alex Carter 72″ 196 4.51 1.6 40 4.07 7.05 17 121

 

Josh Shaw, USC- 6’ 201 3rd Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Josh Shaw 72″ 201 4.44 1.54 37.5 4.12 7.01 26 130

 

Day 3 Grades

Craig Mager, Texas St- 5’11 201 5th Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Craig Mager 71″ 201 4.44 1.54 38 4.07 6.83 17 130

 

Justin Coleman, Tennessee- 5’11 185 5th Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Justin Coleman 71″ 185 4.53 1.42 37.5 3.94 6.61 20 124

 

Tye Smith, Towson- 6′ 195 6th Rd

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Tye Smith 72″ 195 4.6 1.6 36.5 3.96 6.97 15 124

 

Julian Wilson, Oklahoma- 6’2 205 7th Rd-UDFA

CB Height Weight 40 Time 10 Yd Split Vertical Jump 20 Yard Shuttle 3 Cone Bench Reps Broad Jump
Julian Wilson 74″ 205 4.58 1.6 36 4.22 6.94 125

 

In conclusion, only 14 out of the 32 CB’s passed the combine thresholds that I found while doing research on past Ted Thompson CB draft picks. And with CB being such a big need for the Packers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than 1 of these players drafted by Ted Thompson.

Be on the look out next week, when I will take a look into combine measurement thresholds that Ted Thompson may have for the ILB position.

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